Football Friday

Back at it for a regular Football Friday previewing the weekends games.

Ohio State has played well - keeping the pedal to the metal in each of its first 3 games. Goal for this week - dont get hurt. It's a glorified exhibition game getting us ready to go to Illinois next week nothing more. Look for a similar result to last weekends game - minus the Bobcat tackling Brutus. Im calling for the shutout this week. Buckeyes 41 EMU 0

Quite a few exciting college games this weekend. Alabama starts its SEC season playing at Arkansas - an upstart team with high expectations. I have to be honest, I dont see many teams competing with Alabama just too many weapons on offense (Just when we were about to forget about Mark Ingram he comes back and rips off a 50 yarder on his 1st play of the season - effectively reminding everybody why he won the Heisman a year ago) and Nick Saban will get his athletes to make plays when it matters on D. Im not saying Arkansas QB Ryan Mallet will look silly but I expect a few turnovers and Bama wins 27 - 14.

Standford travels to Notre Dame. It always seems that Notre Dame is involved in a competitive game every weekend. It always seems I dont give ND enough credit. Well - I think a lot of the Pac 10 this year and not highly of ND - Standford 45 - 14

Oregon State practicing on painted grass just wont be enough to beat Boise in Boise. The season of dreams live on for the Broncos 27 - 20.

WVU will give LSU a closer game than people think - but I still think the Tigers are more talented and ultimately will win the game 33-31.

NFL Week 3

STONE COLD STEVE AUSTIN LEAD PIPE LOCK OF THE WEEK: I start with my lock this week since I missed the first 2 weeks and my locks did so poorly last season so lets shake it up. I see 3 games that entice me to pick them - 3 home teams I thought would make the playoffs before the season listed as double digit favorites. So who am I going to take? Ravens against Browns? Pats at Home? Vikings because they cant go 0-3 right? Nope I'm not taking any of them. In fact, Im taking Indianapolis on the road in Denver giving 5.5. I liked the way the Colts bounced back after getting thumped week 1. I like how the Colts got in their rhythm offensively and I dont see Denver slowing them down (especially with pass rusher Elvis Dumervil lost for the season). Denver is not a good team - and I hate to be that guy but Denver is dealing with a off the field tragedy this week and I think it will serve as a distraction more than a motivator for this team. Colts -5.5 is my lock of the week.

Browns go on the road to Baltimore and while I think the Browns will lose I dont project the embarrassment everybody else does. Baltimore's offense has stalled in their first 2 games and Cleveland's D is no laughing matter. Still, there is no way this team can score points unless Josh Cribbs does it for them.

I almost took Pittsburgh as my lock of the week, knowing their D is so good they could win with me at QB, but I didnt so Ill just pick them to start 3-0 here.

Dallas will fall to 0-3 after playing Houston who has the swagger - a team wanting to make a statement each week.

UPSET SPECIAL - Atlanta over New Orleans. The Falcons are looking to make a statement and while they couldnt figure out Pittsburgh's D, they got on track last week. Look for more of the same from Matt Ryan and company as the champs will lose their first game of the season.

Lastly, I'll pick the Dolphins at home on Sunday night and not because of Braylon Edwards controversy, but because I think the Dolphins are a better team.

Enjoy the weekends games should be a lot of fun.

Weekend Wrapup

I did not get the opprotunity to blog my thoughts on the first full football weekend but I am contributing to another blog - see it here - http://thegreatohstate.wordpress.com/


Here are some of my thoughts on this past weekend's action:

OSU/Miami
OSU probably should have won by at least 5 tds. Im gonna be the Ohio State fan that wakes us up from reality - there were plenty of problems that I saw. Starting with the obvious - this is the worst special teams performance of the Tressel era (this is year 10 folks!). Last week agianst Marshall they not only allowed a blocked kick but the kick coverage was poor. Against Miami, the kick coverage was nonexistent. 1st I must say, maybe Ohio State has always been bad with kick coverage we have just had exceptional kickers who boom kicks for touchbacks every trip down. This kicking game is pathetic and needs to get cleaned up or it will cost us.


Offensively, I think this team is talented but it always seems to come down to offensive line play. They could not generate a push to save their lives. Can this team run the ball when the defense knows its coming? I know the schedule is favorable from here on out but I dont know if they can...


Pryor certainly saved us by making plays with his legs. I could care less about his completion %, but some of his decision are still questionable. Miami certainly did us some favors by not capitalizing on the mistakes Pryor made the way that OSU capitalized on Harris' mistakes. He needs to stop caring about his NFL draft stock and just focus on winning games. My opinion is hes playing like hes wants to (needs to?) leave after this year (which would undoubtedly be a mistake).


Coaching wise - I was not surprised but I wished Ohio State would have had the same killer mindset that they seemed to have against Marshall where we out to bury them. The coaching staff seemed ok with settling for field goals which is definitely better than no points, but sometimes settling hurts you in a close game. If OSU doesnt force all the turnovers it would have been a different game.


Bottom line - OSU is the #2 ranked team in the country and with the schedule they have nothing will change that no matter how unimpressive we are as long as we win every game on our schedule. In a sport where each win is not counted equally OSU is afforded that luxury to just win baby.


Elsewhere in college football:

BYE BYE BOISE!!! Withouth playing a game you lost! Cant hang your hat on that Va Tech win UHOH! ACC is garbage - FSU is still giving up points to Oklahoma. The U should have lost by 40. Va Tech loses to 1AA school. Ga Tech loses to Kansas. UNC has players still suspended. Conference play should be fun.


Michigan beat Notre Dame. Why is this game such a big deal? Yes UM's QB is fast. If he does what he has been doing against Michigan St, Iowa, Penn St I will be impressed. Right now, they are playing nobody's. Sorry ND fan, maybe Brian Kelly isnt Christ reincarnated.


NFL Thoughts

Jake Delhomme is who we thought he was - a turnover prone QB at the end of his career. He will most likely cost us more games than he will win us. Strong defensive performance ruined by turnovers. This team is built on the run - where was Jerome Harrison? 9 carries isnt enough. Browns will still be competitive because of D but must avoid turnovers.


Steelers and Falcons were 2 solid teams playing each other. If Pitt can grind out wins like that without Roethlisberger they will be tough down the strech.

The Bengals are who I thought they were - BAD. I know its 1 game, against a good team but they had no answer defensively and they didnt do anything offensively until the game was already decided. It is back to business as usually in Cincy.

The Ravens looked great last night - better than I expected. Offense made mistakes and the D still picked them up, even withouth Ed Reed. Jets D played great too, but their offense isnt ready to take that step forward.

Cant wait for more football action the rest of the way.

2010 NFL Preview

The countdown to Super Bowl XLV can officially begin tonight as the New Orleans Saints begin their championship defense against the Minnesota Vikings. Recent history suggests that the Super Bowl winner does not have as strong of a season following the championship but they open the season strong(Pittsburgh missed the playoffs last year but won week 1 opener). Minnesota is out for revenge and who knows how well New Orleans defense will play, but I have a feeling the Saints will pull it out tonight, 34 - 24.

As for the full season predictions here are my divisional winners and wildcards for the AFC
AFC East - New England
AFC North - Pittsburgh
AFC South - Indianapolis
AFC West - Oakland
Wild Card - Baltimore
Wild Card - San Diego

Notes - Indy is as safe a bet as anybody to win their division...AFC North is probably the closest division in the NFL...The east will be entertaining but at the end of the day I like the Pats because their system doesnt need superstars with the big egos like the Jets... Speaking of Hard Knock Jets' I think Sanchez does not take the step forward everybody is expecting and I look for them to go 8-8....Houston wont take the step forward everybody is predicting... I almost put the Jags in the playoffs thats how much I like them....The Raiders in the west is bold, but the defense has been there. They played really well last year in November and December when the team gave up on JaMarcus Russell. Id be surprised if they dont keep it going this year.... How much will the Chargers miss their holdouts? More than they are letting on...I think the Browns will be very competiive in every game, but I have them going 7-9.... The worst team in the league will be Buffalo closely followed by Denver.

NFC:
NFC East - Dallas
NFC North - Minnesota
NFC South - Atlanta
NFC West - Seattle
Wild Card - Carolina
Wild Card - Green Bay

Notes - The East is always an entertaining division but I see a lot of questions marks which is why I only have 1 team making it to the playoffs. I like the Cowboys, but this is the same team that has been in place the last 3 years - Romo needs to show me something more. I like Kolb in Philly, but I think they will have growing pains. I like McNabb but will he have enough playmakers or will the defense make enough stops? I like Eli and the G Men but what about the O Line and the run game? What about their LBs - can they stop anybody?...Lions will give every team a game, their defense is respectable it will be about not making turnovers offensively... GB is a trendy pick for the super bowl but they need to find a way to keep Rodgers upright or they will be out of they will be going home in January.... The Saints will still be the Saints, but I see a drop off in their performance defensively and I think it will cost them - maybe 8-8, 9-7 type record.... Arizona will compete with St Louis for worst team in the league.... Dont sleep on Carolina, they have a punishing run game...Seattle is my pick for the west, but nobody impresses me out there. Pete Carroll will find a way to win 8 games and that will get them in...

AFC Championship
Pittsburgh over Indy

NFC Championship
Atlanta over Dallas

Super Bowl 45
Atlanta over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh D gets them there and improved running game takes pressure off Big Ben. But Matt Ryan and Michael Turner find a way to score enough to beat the Steel Curtain the the Defense holds Ben, who cant make a Super Bowl winning drive.

Postseason Awards:
NFL MVP
Adrian Peterson

Defensive Player of the year
Jon Beason, Carolina

Rookie of the year
Rolando McClain - Defense
CJ Spiller - Offense

FOOTBALL WEDNESDAY

What a great time to be alive!!! The weekend starts on Thursday as football season will be in full swing starting on Thursday night. I was excited that Ohio State was going to kick off the season on a Thursday night, until I realized they were sharing the night with 17 other games including 2 games I would like to see (Pitt @ Utah and USC @ Hawaii). Regardless, the first football weekend is upon us and I could not be any more excited. Here is a look at this weekends games:

Marshall visits the Shoe for the 2nd meeting between the schools and even though I do not know anything about Marshall I am nervous. Ohio State does not start well under Jim Tressel (remember Navy a season ago), and he usually doesnt help the cause by inserting the 2nd team in the first half before the game is no longer in doubt. 28.5 points is alot to cover even for the best of Tressel's teams, I can not endorse playing Ohio State as I think OSU wins 24-13.

Pittsburgh plays at Utah in what may be the weekends most intriguing game. Pitt is coming off their best in the Wannstedt era and they have a dark horse Heisman candidate in Dion Lewis. But making the cross country trip to Utah is not easy. Im going with my gut and picking Utah at home.

USC probably would be a top 5 team had the sanction hammer not hit them in the head. However, the hammer did come down and they are down on the depth. I am excited to see how this team responds under new coach Lane Kiffin. But they still have more than enough playmakers to defeat Hawaii.

Tim Tebow-less Florida takes on Miami.... of Ohio. Urban is too scared to do what the Buckeyes are going to do, play the U. Regardless look for Florida to put up ridiculous numbers against Tim Reynolds alma mater.

Purdue plays at Notre Dame. Tough to call. On one hand, you have better talent on Notre Dames sideline, but you have more victories on the other. Ill go with Purdue to start the Brian Kelly era off on the wrong foot.

UConn has built a nice football program. Going into the Big house and getting a victory isnt what it used to be, but it would be a nice feather in the cap for UConn. Michigan plans to play 3 quarterbacks (who knows the old saying - when you have 2 QBs you really have none? - well what does having 3 mean?!?!) which can not be a good sign. There defense was abismal at best last year and they lost there best defender to the NFL (Brandon Graham) and 4 of their would be starting DBs for 1 reason or another are no longer with the program. Michigan has 9 freshman on their defensive 2 deep. This reeks of a desperation. I pick UConn to win on the road.

I will pick LSU over UNC because I believe LSU has a ton of talent and I think they will really surprise the people who are doubting them. I believe they will be a top 10 team by the end of the year. And that is no disrespect to my man Butch Davis (your still my pick to win the ACC Butch!), but with eligibility issues surrounding the program I think LSU gets it done.

Oregon State travels to Dallas to play TCU (sidenote: props to Oregon State for having non conference games @ TCU and @ Boise). This game should be a great one. The Rodgers brothers for Oregon State will have trouble making plays against Gary Patterson's defense. I think Andy Dalton and the offense should roll, so Ill take TCU.

The big question of the football season - does Boise deserve to play for a national championship? Well lets see how the season plays out before we put Boise in any game because Boise is actually leaving the smurf turf and heading to Washington DC to play Virginia Tech. Boise, not known for its defense will need to show that it can pack a punch as it goes up against one of the nations strongest rushing attacks. I like Beamer Ball, I hope they get it done, but I have a feeling Boise will be ready for this game and get the win.

Thats it for now, enjoy the long weekend and good luck in your fantasy drafts!!!

AFC East Preview

The AFC East has a dynasty on the fall, a team on the rise, and a trendy sleeper pick to make the postseason. The division should come down to the final weeks and should be 1 of the leagues closer battles. Here are my thoughts:

1. New England - This could be the last year for the Patriots as we know them as Tom Brady and Randy Moss enter the final years of their contracts. With a coach like Belichick the Patriots will always be in contention. They don't seem to be the heavy favorites they have been in the past and that might just be right where they want to be. I expect the defensive draft picks to play well and this team should be right around 11 wins and atop this division.
Fantasy stud - Tom Brady, QB. Right now, people are viewing him as the #4-6 QB depending upon the rankings and that is steal in my opinion.
Fantasy sleeper - Julian Edelman, WR. Even though he is playing in the preseason, Wes Welker's status could be up in the air and Edelman could develop into a similar type player.
Fantasy Lame - Any Patriot RB. They are the ultimate committee, cannot be trusted for consistent fantasy production.

2. Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins have quietly built a solid team in Miami. The innovative Wildcat took the league by storm a few seasons ago, but now they might have a more traditional look as WR Brandon Marshall gives the Fins a legitimate target. This team struggled with closing out games last year (see Colts and Saints games) but this year I feel like they might put it together - I see 10 wins and a playoff berth for this team.
Fantasy stud - Brandon Marshall, WR. He has been able to take over a game like very few wideouts can - he is almost a lock for 100+ catches and 10 TDs.
Fantasy sleeper - Brian Hartline, WR. While Marshall will get a majority of focus from opposing defenses, Hartline could find himself with room to move.
Fantasy Lame - I don't hate Chad Henne, but I am going to make him prove his worth before I endorse him.

3. New York Jets - All the expectations are on the Jets after a surprise run to AFC title game last year and a an off season where they seemingly added every big name free agent available. I like the team but I see flaws. QB Mark Sanchez seems to be getting praise for handing the ball off. More will be expected of him this year and I don't know if I believe in him. Braylon Edwards is supposed to be a pro bowl wideout, yet he still hasn't learned to catch the ball. LaDanian Tomlinson probably isn't an upgrade over Thomas Jones at this stage of his career. The defense looks solid but they are not the top unit without Revis. Bottom line, this team is good but not great and I think 8 wins is what I am going to give them.
Fantasy stud - Shonn Greene, RB. This team will pound the football and Greene will be the lead man even with LT in the backfield.
Fantasy sleeper - Santonio Holmes, WR. He will be the clear cut #1 option for Sanchez when he returns from suspension and you can get him at a bargain considering where he is going.
Fantasy lame - Edwards, WR. The guy has had the drops every since he got into the league, but because of a uniform change things are going to change? Unlikely.

4. Buffalo Bills - Things could get ugly in Buffalo. This team might be on the clock come next January. Play making rookie CJ Spiller is the lone bright spot on the offensive side of the ball. I see 2 games this team can possibly win. Not looking good.
Fantasy stud - CJ Spiller, RB. Go draft him, hell be a home run hitter.
Fantasy lame - anybody not named Spiller.

AFC North Preview

I could not be any more excited for football season and what better way to do that than by breaking down each division. As football season approaches I will try and keep my updates more regular, at least 2 or 3 a week. Something else I am preparing for is fantasy football so with each team preview I will give you a fantasy stud (a player you want and need), a fantasy sleeper (a player you can target in the middle to late portion of your draft but has big potential), or a fantasy lame (you want to stay away from lames unless you, yourself, are lame).

But for now, I will start with a division near and dear to my heart, the AFC North. Each team has intriguing story lines as we look ahead at the 2010 season. Here they are in my predicted order of finish.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - I know Big Ben is out for at least 4 games. I know they lost a big time playmaker in Santonio Holmes and the offensive line has question marks, but I believe in this defense. Injuries to star safety Troy Polamalu made the Steel Curtain defense breakable during 2009 and I dont see it breaking in 2010. I view this team as a 11-13 win football team.
Fantasy Stud - Rashard Mendenhall, RB. He'll be a late 1st early 2nd round target, but I believe the Steelers will get back to the smash mouth running game we associate with them. Mendenhall has a chance to bust out of the gate early with some big numbers because he will likely be the person who produces in Big Ben's absence.
Fantasy Sleeper - Steelers D. This is 1 of the D's I am coveting. They will sack the QB, they will cause turnovers, they will go back to being a top defensive unit
Fantasy Lame - I think Ben Roethlisberger can have a nice season, but he misses at least 4 games and it will take time for him to gel with his WR. He is no longer a top 10 QB and should be considered a late round backup at best.
2. Baltimore Ravens - As long as Ray Lewis is in Baltimore, the Ravens will be known for defense. But this year, things might change as the Ravens have plenty of weapons on offense. Joe Flacco will need to continue to develop and he has the receivers around him. This team has Super Bowl expectations, and I think they have the formula to win in January but I am predicting 9-10 wins and a playoff berth for this team.
Fantasy Stud - Anquan Boldin, WR. I know Ray Rice gets all the love, but he has to share with 2 other RBs. I can see Boldin putting up numbers similar to his rookie season when he busted on the scene with 101 catches and 1300 receiving yards now that he doesnt have to share the ball with Larry Fitzgerald.
Fantasy Sleeper - Willis McGahee, RB. He scored 14 total TDs last year and everyone is in love with Ray Rice, I dont understand it.
Fantasy Lame - Ray Rice, RB. Look, hes going to have a fine season but I am not going to be the person who drafts him in the top 5. He has to share touches with Willis McGahee (a former 1st round pick making big $) and Leron McLain who can be a punishing runner himself.
3. Cleveland Browns - What, not dead last! Go ahead and leave your homer comments, but I think the players have bought in to what Mangini is selling and this team will surprise people. Things change so fast in the NFL, and I feel like the Browns will be able to be competitive in almost every one of there games. The defense should be improved seeing that they made a few significant additions in the off season to shore up the defense. I am predicting 6-8 wins for this 2010 Browns team.
Fantasy Stud - Jerome Harrison, RB. He finished strong last year and the team rewarded him by drafting a running back in the 2nd round. But fortunately for Harrison, Hardesty is injury prone and is already injured, likely out for all of preseason. Harrison will benefit from a solid offensive line and lack of a passing attack.
Fantasy Sleeper - Brian Robiskie, WR. Everyone is saying he has made great strides in the off season. He could be a worthy last pick addition if he is able to catch a few TD passes.
Fantasy Lame - Josh Cribbs, WR/RB/Wildcat QB/Punt Returner/Kick Return/Safety?. This do it all player has real value to a real football team. For your fantasy team, Cribbs has little upside unless your league counts return yardage.
4. Cincinnati Bengals - Somebody has to lose. I know they picked up T.O. But Im still not a fan of there passing offense. The Bengals won a lot of close games last year and could have easily had a double digit loss season instead of 10 wins. This year, I think luck balances out and the Bengals lose more than they win. Im giving this team 5-6 wins.
Fantasy Stud - I really dont want to call him a stud but there is nobody else I like besides Cedric Benson. He is a talented back, who runs hard, but is also injury prone. Invest at your own risk with him.
Fantasy Sleeper - Bernard Scott, RB. He is an exciting football player and if given an opportunity he could be an explosive fantasy player. Take a flyer on him you might be surprised.
Fantasy Lame - Carson Palmer, QB. He lost the ability to throw because he didnt want to have Tommy John surgery. If a QB cant get the ball down field, it will be difficult to produce big time numbers even with big name WR.

JILTED

Can Lebron be any more modest? I mean really, I feel like he didnt do himself justice the way he was talking tonight. Does he think hes a Kardashian? Is he "taking" Miami? Is he Kortney or Khole? Maybe hes Scott.

I never thought I would say this, but I am more of a Cavs fan right now than I was 2 months ago. That is because of our badass owner, Dan Gilbert, talking about betrayal and sending the curse of Cleveland with Lebron. Awesome, dude. Personally guarenteeing a title before Lebron wins 1, you rock.

Full text here: http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/news/gilbert_letter_100708.html

Look, do I think Miami is a good team, of course. Do I think they are the favorite to win there division - NO. Orlando is much more complete and better. Can Miami beat Boston, maybe in a year or 2 but not next year. I actually like the Bulls better than the Heat. We can make full predictions once the roster is filled out.

This hurts, Cleveland fans. I know it. Having a native son use us as toilet paper hurts. Having the national media praise Lebron hurts, especially after his selfish, self promoting stunt that he pulled tonight. But just like a bitter divorce, the sun will rise tomorrow. The world does not end. Now lets hope that the oil spill ruins South Beach.